Welfare Cuts and Crime: Evidence from the New Poor Law.

The article examines the impact of the Poor Law Amendment Act of 1834, which centralized and reduced poor relief spending across English and Welsh counties, on criminal activity. Using a difference-in-differences instrumental variables approach exploiting heterogeneous welfare cuts, the study finds that reductions in poor relief causally increased criminal charges, particularly non-violent property crimes such as larceny and poaching. These effects were most pronounced during winter months of seasonal agricultural unemployment, suggesting that economically vulnerable seasonal workers resorted to crime as a substitute for lost welfare support. The findings highlight an unintended social consequence of austerity measures, emphasizing the trade-off between fiscal savings and potential increases in crime among precariously employed populations.