Opening the Thucydides trap: a genealogy of rise-and-fall theory.

This article critically examines the rise of Graham Allison's "Thucydides trap" as a dominant framework for analyzing potential great power conflict between the United States and China, situating it within the broader intellectual tradition of rise-and-fall theory (RFT). It argues that while the Thucydides trap has popularized concerns about power transitions, it oversimplifies key theoretical debates regarding the conceptualization of power, the appropriate unit of analysis, and the causal mechanisms driving conflict, thereby limiting its analytical precision and policy relevance. By reconstructing the diverse subvariants of RFT developed during the Cold War—such as power transition theory, power cycle theory, system leadership theory, and hegemonic war theory—the article advocates for a pluralistic approach that integrates multiple perspectives to better understand and address the complexities of Sino-American relations and global conflict. It encourages scholars and policymakers to move beyond the reductive Thucydides trap model and employ a more nuanced, kaleidoscopic framework that acknowledges the multifaceted nature of power dynamics and conflict causation.