Uncertainty of typhoon extreme wind speeds in Hong Kong integrating the effects of climate change.

This article focuses on assessing the impact of climate change on extreme typhoon-induced wind speeds near Hong Kong using a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approach informed by sea surface temperature (SST) projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The study finds that rising SSTs lead to a significant increase in both mean and extreme typhoon wind speeds, with the 50-year return period extreme wind speed projected to rise by approximately 21% by 2051–2080 compared to 1961–1990. It also quantifies uncertainties in these predictions by incorporating SST projections from 17 global climate models, revealing inter-quartile ranges of about 9% for SSTs and 13% for extreme wind speeds, with additional uncertainty introduced by the stochastic nature of the MCS. The results indicate a general counterclockwise shift in wind directions and highlight the importance of considering climate change effects and associated uncertainties in typhoon hazard assessments and structural design in typhoon-prone coastal regions like Hong Kong.