In the Middle East, Thucydides Wins and Woodrow Wilson Loses.

The article focuses on the emerging triangular diplomatic deal among the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, driven primarily by national interests and power rather than shared values. This potential agreement would involve Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel in exchange for U.S. security guarantees and nuclear energy assistance, while Israel would limit settlement expansion and maintain prospects for a two-state solution. The U.S. aims to counter China's influence in the Middle East and contain Iran by aligning these regional powers. Despite ideological and political obstacles within each country, the deal reflects a realist shift in global politics prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and evolving geopolitical dynamics.