Why Truman's 1948 upset is no template for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, according to the expert who wrote the book on polling failure.

The article examines the parallels and differences between Harry S. Truman's 1948 presidential election victory and the current campaign of President Joe Biden for reelection in 2024. While some draw comparisons between the two elections, particularly regarding polling dynamics, the author highlights significant distinctions, such as the nature of polling confidence and the vigor of the candidates. In 1948, Truman faced a fractured Democratic Party and a confident Republican opponent, Thomas E. Dewey, who led in polls throughout the campaign. In contrast, Biden's campaign is characterized by a more unified Democratic base, and current polling shows a much tighter race against former President Donald Trump, suggesting that a surprise outcome akin to 1948 is unlikely. [Extracted from the article]