Heated Migration Debates in Japan? An Empirical-Analytical Look at the 2024 Lower House Election.

The openly xenophobic campaign of the small party Sanseitō led to significant gains in Japan's Upper House election in July 2025. International media reacted with surprise, interpreting the result as a possible shift in Japan's political culture. German outlets in particular drew strong comparisons: Deutsche Welle diagnosed a »problem with rightwing populism,« Frankfurter Rundschau claimed populists were »hijacking« Japan's election, and Die Zeit described Sanseitō's rise as »Trump in Japanese.« Much of the coverage raised the question of whether Japan, like other liberal democracies, is experiencing a rightward turn fueled by populist xenophobia. With Sanseitō securing 15 Upper House seats under the slogan »Japanese First,« observers wondered if this marked the beginning of such a development. To assess this, it is useful to look back at the October 2024 Lower House election. How did Sanseitō and other parties position themselves on migration at that time? Was it already clear that issues linked to migration--such as labor shortages, booming tourism, or foreign property investment--would gain such explosive political force? This article therefore analyzes party positions on migration in 2024, situates them within the framework of migration securitization, and offers early insights into a possible shift in Japan's migration debate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]