Civil War Mediation and the Conflict Environment: Does Regional Instability Influence the Onset of Mediation?

The article examines how a state's conflict environment—defined as the spatially and temporally proximate civil wars in neighboring states—affects third parties' decisions to offer mediation and disputants' willingness to accept mediation in ongoing civil wars. Empirical analysis of civil wars from 1960 to 1999 shows that third parties are significantly less likely to offer mediation in more violent and unstable regional environments, even when they have historic or security ties to the conflict state. Conversely, while disputants may be somewhat more willing to accept mediation offers as regional violence increases, this effect is limited and less robust, with local conflict conditions and mediator reputation playing a more decisive role. The findings highlight that hostile regional conflict environments raise logistical, political, and reputational costs for mediators, potentially leading to the neglect of some civil wars by peace brokers, and suggest that both regional and local factors must be considered to understand mediation dynamics fully.