If You'll Be My Bodyguard: Presidential Guard Units and Leader Capture During Coups d'état.

This article examines the strategic role of incumbent leader capture during military coups and the effectiveness of presidential guard units as a coup-proofing measure. Using novel data on leader statuses from 387 coup attempts worldwide between 1950 and 2017, the study finds that capturing the regime leader significantly increases the likelihood of coup success. Conversely, the presence of counterweight presidential guard units—elite security forces stationed near the leader and independent from the regular military—substantially reduces the probability of leader capture during a coup attempt. These findings highlight the critical influence of targeted security institutions on coup dynamics and regime survival, offering new empirical insights into the operational phase of coups and suggesting avenues for further research on specialized security forces' roles in political violence.