JOURNAL ARTICLE

Forecasting Phenological Shifts in Forest Tree Species using Herbarium Records from the Kumaun Himalaya, India.

  • Published In: International Scientific Journal of Engineering & Management, 2026, v. 5, n. 4. P. 1 1 of 3

  • Database: Applied Science & Technology Source Ultimate 2 of 3

  • Authored By: Shah, Zoya; Arya, Dhani 3 of 3

Abstract

The article focuses on forecasting phenological shifts, specifically flowering time changes, in eight dominant forest tree species of the Kumaun Himalaya, India, using herbarium records (1985–2020) combined with recent field observations (2015–2021). Employing Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), the study finds significant advances in flowering onset ranging from 13 to 42 days earlier, primarily driven by rising temperatures. These phenological shifts have ecological and socioeconomic implications, such as reduced fruit productivity in Pyrus pashia leading to increased wildlife crop-raiding. The research highlights the value of integrating historical herbarium data with current observations for long-term, region-specific monitoring of climate change impacts on Himalayan forest ecosystems and underscores the need for adaptive management strategies to mitigate associated risks to biodiversity and local livelihoods.

Additional Information

  • Source:International Scientific Journal of Engineering & Management. 2026/04, Vol. 5, Issue 4, p1
  • Document Type:Article
  • Subject Area:History
  • Publication Date:2026
  • ISSN:25836129
  • DOI:10.55041/ISJEM06881
  • Accession Number:193639615
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