The Language of Dynasty: Quantitative Discourse Analysis of Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, and Kim Jong-un, 1930-2020.

Purpose--Scholars note that understanding the political philosophy, interests, and objectives of North Korea's leaders has been extremely difficult and a long list of frustrated attempts by other nations to deal with its regimes is a testimony to that fact. The purpose of this paper is to establish a quantitative baseline of key narrative themes in the political discourse used by North Korea's rulers, track key shifts in these themes through time, and test hypotheses about leader similarities and differences. Design/Methodology/Approach--This study uses a quantitative discourse analysis methodology derived from thematic analysis, discourse analysis, and quantitative content analysis methods applied to 144 speeches and writings of Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, and Kim Jong-un to assess the relative importance of issues and cultural themes in a North Korean leader's discourse. Finding--The political narratives of North Korea's leaders are grounded in core themes of Juche political philosophy and this study reinforces the quasi-religious nature of Juche philosophy and the Kim family cult of personality. However, Kim Il-sung and to a lesser extent Kim Jong-un, have exhibited an ability to adapt their narratives to changing circumstances. Themes central to the early Kim regime such as democracy and the fight against Western imperialism decreased through time. Recent narrative shifts by Kim Jong-un closely track his antagonistic relations with U.S. presidents from 2012 to 2018, then exhibit a rapprochement early in 2018, although this fades in both words and deeds by the summer of 2019. Practical Implications--Western policy makers have found understanding North Korean political leaders extremely difficult. Once a leader's worldview is understood, it should be easier to understand the leader's interests and perhaps even anticipate strategic objectives and political actions. Originality, Value--This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the majority of available speeches and writings produced by North Korea's leaders. The quantitative discourse analysis method presented was expressly developed to provide policymakers with guidance and produces quantitative and reproducible results useful for testing hypotheses about the Kim regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]