Punching before the Bell Rings: United Nations Signaling and Pre-Deployment Violence in Civil Wars.

This article examines how United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions signaling potential peacekeeping operations (PKOs) affect violence levels in ongoing civil conflicts prior to actual deployment. Using a dataset covering 1989–2014, the study finds that the passage and increasing number of UNSC resolutions addressing a conflict significantly correlate with escalations in one-sided violence against civilians by combatants before peacekeepers arrive. The authors argue that combatants strategically intensify violence to improve their bargaining positions, anticipating that PKOs will later restrict their ability to use force. These findings highlight unintended consequences of UNSC signaling, suggesting that while deployed UN peacekeeping reduces violence, the pre-deployment phase marked by UNSC resolutions can create more dangerous conditions for civilians, underscoring the need for timely deployment and careful Council deliberations.