Classical Realism and the Rise of Sino-American Antagonism: A Review Essay.

The article examines whether the United States has pursued a strategy of containment against China and explores the complexities behind shifts in U.S. grand strategy, particularly the diversion of focus toward Russia despite its relative decline. It critiques dominant international relations theories—structural realism and rationalist expectations for war (REW)—for their limited predictive power and advocates for a return to classical realism, rooted in the works of Thucydides, which emphasizes history, contingency, leadership, and prudence in understanding state behavior. The authors argue that U.S. strategic decisions, influenced by domestic politics, ideology, and leadership, have shaped its responses to China and Russia, with the current Sino-U.S. rivalry's trajectory dependent on prudent leadership choices rather than structural inevitability. Classical realism, they contend, offers the most comprehensive framework for analyzing the nuanced and uncertain dynamics of great power competition today.