Lineage or Legions? Explaining Imperial Rule Duration in the Roman Empire.

This article examines the impact of dynastic nepotism on the survival and effectiveness of autocratic rulers, focusing on Roman emperors over a 1,230-year period. Contrary to common assumptions that nepotistic succession yields unstable and ineffective leadership, the study finds that emperors with close familial ties to their predecessors enjoyed longer reigns, greater likelihood of achieving effective rule, and presided over periods of enhanced imperial security and reduced domestic unrest. The authors argue that dynastic centrality provided rulers with established political networks and legitimacy crucial for maintaining power in the absence of formal hereditary succession laws. These findings suggest that nepotism, within centralized autocratic systems like the Roman Empire, may contribute positively to regime stability and governance outcomes.