Impact of a guaranteed minimum income program on rural–urban migration in China.

This article examines the impact of the Minimum Living Security Allowance (MLSA), one of the world's largest unconditional basic income guarantee programs in China, on rural household decisions to engage in rural–urban migration. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design based on MLSA's income eligibility cutoff and novel survey data from China's ethnic minority areas, the study finds that receiving MLSA subsidies significantly increases the likelihood of migration, particularly among poor ethnic minority households facing high perceived migration costs. The MLSA program also raises recipients' disposable income and consumption but does not significantly affect investment behavior. These findings suggest that targeted cash transfers like MLSA can alleviate credit or risk constraints, thereby promoting migration-led urbanization and improving rural household wellbeing.