When Threats Backfire: Overcharged Defendants Overestimate Their Trial Prospects and Reject Plea Offers More Often.

The article focuses on research examining the psychological effects of strategic overcharging in plea bargaining, specifically how disproportionately harsh potential trial sentences (PTS) influence defendants' plea decisions. The study found that while irrelevant numeric anchors did not affect plea choices, severe PTSs increased defendants’ sentencing preferences but also paradoxically raised their estimates of acquittal likelihood and perceptions of favorable evidence, leading to more plea rejections. These findings suggest that PTS values impact defendants through different cognitive pathways, challenging the rational-actor model that treats PTS and conviction likelihood as independent factors. The research indicates that overcharging may unintentionally encourage defendants to overestimate their chances at trial, potentially undermining prosecutorial strategy. [Extracted from the article]