Community Violence and the Stability of Marriages and Cohabitations in Mexico.

This study examines the association between local violence and the stability of women's first co-residential unions in Mexico, focusing on the surge in homicide rates triggered by the Mexican War on Drugs (MWD) starting in December 2006. Using event history and competing-risks Cox models with data from the 2009 National Survey of Demographic Dynamics, the analysis reveals that recent increases in local violence significantly raise the risk of union dissolution and, among less educated cohabiting women, also increase the likelihood of transitioning to marriage. In contrast, no significant associations were found for more educated women, suggesting that disadvantaged women's unions are more sensitive to violence-related social disruptions. The findings highlight heterogeneous family responses to violence shocks, reflecting differences in social proximity to violence, economic vulnerability, and access to resources, and contribute to understanding how local criminal violence influences family trajectories in contexts of inequality.