JOURNAL ARTICLE

Empirical Properties of Crime Rate Trends.

  • Published In: Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 2024, v. 40, n. 1. P. 7 1 of 3

  • Database: Academic Search Ultimate 2 of 3

  • Authored By: McDowall, David 3 of 3

Abstract

This article analyzes the time series processes underlying U.S. crime rate trends, using national data from the Uniform Crime Report (UCR) and a panel of large U.S. cities. It finds that crime rates generally follow nonstationary processes resembling random walks or autoregressive models, with few large deviations and little evidence of nonlinear dynamics or equilibrium tendencies. National crime rates change more smoothly and show some correlation with local city rates, which are more influenced by immediate events but also respond to national shocks. The findings suggest that crime trends fluctuate primarily with contemporaneous conditions rather than reverting to stable long-term means, providing empirical "stylized facts" that can guide future theoretical development and research on crime dynamics.

Additional Information

  • Source:Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice. 2024/02, Vol. 40, Issue 1, p7
  • Document Type:Article
  • Subject Area:Law
  • Publication Date:2024
  • ISSN:1043-9862
  • DOI:10.1177/10439862231189979
  • Accession Number:174789353
  • Copyright Statement:Copyright of Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice is the property of Sage Publications Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Looking to go deeper into this topic? Look for more articles on EBSCOhost.