A Racial Model of Electoral Reform: The Relationship between Restrictive Voting Policies and Voter Confidence for Black and White Voters.

This article examines how restrictive voting policies affect voter confidence and beliefs about voter fraud differently among Black and white voters in the United States. Using data from the Cost of Voting Index (COVI) and the Survey of the Performance of American Elections (SPAE) from 2012 to 2020, the study finds that increasing voting restrictions decreases voter confidence among Black voters but has no significant or potentially positive effects on white voters’ confidence. Additionally, restrictive policies reduce beliefs in widespread voter fraud among white voters but do not affect Black voters’ fraud beliefs. The research also highlights that racial elite signaling—messages from Black or white political elites to their coracial communities—amplifies these divergent perceptions, particularly in states with higher Black legislative representation. These findings suggest that restrictive voting reforms may undermine Black voter confidence while failing to broadly enhance overall voter confidence, raising important considerations for democratic participation and election policy.