Revisiting the individual-level correlates of emigration intentions: Evidence from Central America.

This article examines the individual-level correlates of emigration intentions in four Central American countries—El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua—using over a decade of data from the AmericasBarometer surveys (2006–2018/19) by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP). The statistical analysis employing probit regression models finds that multiple factors relate to the intention to migrate, with receiving remittances and crime victimization emerging as the most consistent and robust correlates across countries and time. Economic perceptions, particularly personal (pocketbook) economic outlooks, show a weaker but sometimes significant association, while corruption victimization also correlates positively with emigration intentions though less consistently. Attitudes toward democracy, despite democratic backsliding in the region, do not significantly influence emigration intentions. These findings contribute to understanding the complex and multifaceted drivers of migration intentions in Central America, highlighting the roles of economic support networks and personal experiences of violence.