The die is cast? The origins of territorial claims & their escalation to military hostilities.

This article examines how the conditions under which territorial claims originate influence the likelihood of subsequent military hostility, focusing on four origination types: (1) pristine claims initiated diplomatically without prior conflict; (2) claims arising from territorial incursion involving initial military invasion; (3) claims following territorial loss where a state seeks to regain land lost in a previous conflict; and (4) claims emerging from national independence, often involving newly formed states disputing borders. Using original data on 209 territorial claims in Asia and Oceania from 1816 to 2001, the analysis finds that claims originating from territorial incursion, territorial loss, and national independence are significantly more prone to militarized escalation than pristine claims. The study highlights the importance of historical and structural international contexts—such as imperialism, decolonization, and power shifts—in shaping the initiation and escalation of territorial disputes, suggesting that these origins affect domestic salience and political incentives for military action.