Ending civil wars through fraudulent elections.

This article examines the heterogeneous effects of electoral fraud on peace in elections following civil wars that ended in stalemate. It develops a theoretical model showing that unpopular incumbents may use electoral fraud to secure narrow victories and subsequently adopt centrist policies accommodating insurgent preferences, thereby preventing war recurrence. Monte-Carlo simulations and suggestive empirical evidence from 36 post-stalemate elections between 1970 and 2015 support the theory, revealing a discontinuity in incumbent victory margins indicative of fraud, a decrease in post-election violence, and increased government spending on public goods. The findings imply that, contrary to conventional wisdom, preventing electoral fraud in this specific context may increase the likelihood of civil war continuation due to commitment problems faced by incumbents losing office.