Impact of Changes to Concealed-Carry Weapons Laws on Fatal and Nonfatal Violent Crime, 1980–2019.

This article examines the impact of adopting "shall-issue" concealed-carry weapons (CCW) laws—laws that require states to issue concealed firearm permits to applicants meeting basic criteria—on violent crime rates in the United States from 1980 to 2019. Using augmented synthetic control modeling with fixed effects and random-effects meta-analysis, the study found that adopting shall-issue CCW laws was associated with a 9.5% increase in aggravated assaults committed with firearms and an 8.8% increase in nongun homicides during the first 10 years after adoption. The increase in gun assaults was particularly pronounced in states that allowed individuals with prior violent misdemeanor convictions to obtain CCW permits, whereas states with provisions restricting such individuals or requiring live-fire training did not experience significant increases in violent crime. The findings suggest that while shall-issue laws are linked to higher rates of firearm-related violence, certain permitting provisions may mitigate these effects.