Mere Puffery or Convincing Claims? Rebel News and Civilian Perceptions of the Balance of Power.

This article examines how exposure to rebel-produced media influences civilian perceptions of rebel strength during conflict, focusing on the Taliban's official radio station, Voice of Sharia, which resumed broadcasting in Kabul in May 2018 after nearly two decades. Using a difference-in-differences approach with survey data from NATO's Afghanistan Nationwide Quarterly Assessment Research (ANQAR), the study finds that access to the Taliban's radio broadcast significantly increased civilians' perceptions that the Taliban were growing stronger. The findings highlight that rebel media can shape public attitudes independently of battlefield events or credible external reporting, exploiting civilians' information disadvantages in conflict zones. The study underscores the importance of understanding and addressing the effects of strategic media campaigns by both state and non-state actors during conflict and suggests avenues for future research on information processing, counter-propaganda, and the conceptualization of rebel strength.