The Effects of Polarized Evaluations on Political Participation: Does Hating the Other Side Motivate Voters?

This study investigates whether rising polarization in Americans' partisan judgments influences political participation, using data from the American National Election Studies (ANES) and nationally representative panel surveys from 1980 to 2020. It distinguishes between affective polarization—differences in feelings toward the Republican and Democratic parties—and candidate thermometer difference, which measures polarized evaluations of the two major-party presidential candidates. Findings indicate that while both forms of polarization are associated with increased self-reported intent to vote and campaign participation, candidate thermometer differences have a stronger and more consistent relationship with political participation than affective polarization. However, analyses using validated voting records reveal that the actual impact of polarization on turnout is modest, with roughly one-quarter to one-third of the increase in turnout from 1980 to 2016 attributable to rising polarization in candidate evaluations. The study concludes that although polarization may modestly boost political participation, much of the expressed polarization reflects expressive attitudes rather than corresponding political action, raising questions about the normative implications of higher turnout driven by partisan animosity.