Do Police Maximize Arrests or Minimize Crime? Evidence from Racial Profiling in U.S. Cities.

This article investigates whether discretionary police stop-and-search behavior in U.S. cities is better characterized by an objective of arrest maximization or crime minimization. Using theoretical models that incorporate endogenous police resources and statistical discrimination based on race and income, the study derives distinct empirical predictions for racial disparities in arrest rates and police spending under each objective. Analyzing data from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program, the American Community Survey, and municipal budgets across over 1,300 cities, the findings consistently support the arrest maximization model and reject the crime minimization model. Robustness checks and placebo tests indicate that these results are unlikely driven by omitted variables, racial animus, political factors, or the racial composition of police forces. The study concludes that empirical tests of discrimination in police search should continue to rely on the assumption that officers maximize arrests rather than minimize crime.