The impact of the kingpin strategy on extortion and kidnapping.

This article examines the impact of Mexico's "kingpin" strategy—targeting and removing criminal leaders—on organised crime activities beyond homicides, specifically extortion and kidnapping, using municipal-level data from 2011 to 2015. Employing a novel matching method for time-series cross-sectional data, the study finds that leadership removals are associated with a significant increase in extortion incidents within six months in affected municipalities, while kidnappings show no significant change. Additionally, no substantial spatial displacement effects to neighbouring municipalities were observed for either crime, except for a small short-term rise in extortion one month after neighbouring removals. These findings suggest that the kingpin strategy may inadvertently exacerbate certain forms of organised crime violence, highlighting the need for alternative policies and a nuanced understanding of how different criminal activities respond to leadership disruptions.