Does the Detention Decision Influence Juvenile Court Processing? An Examination of Cumulative Disadvantage.

This article investigates whether preadjudication detention mediates the relationship between key case-level variables—such as race and ethnicity, sex, offense characteristics, and prior record—and subsequent juvenile court outcomes, thereby producing cumulative disadvantage in the juvenile justice system. Using a multi-state sample of 38,000 juvenile cases, the study finds that while detention is significantly associated with these case-level factors and strongly predicts later outcomes like adjudication and placement, it only partially and modestly mediates these relationships, accounting for 9% to 30% of the total effects depending on the outcome. These findings contrast with prior research that suggested substantial mediation by detention, a discrepancy attributed to differences in statistical methodologies; this study employs a counterfactual decomposition approach considered more appropriate for categorical outcomes. The results imply that detention may function more as a marker of underlying risk or need rather than a causal mechanism amplifying disparities, highlighting the need for further research into the initial detention decision and broader social factors contributing to juvenile justice disparities.