A ticking time bomb? The impact of objective class and stratification beliefs on societal conflict perceptions in South Africa.

This article examines the dynamics of perceived social conflict (PSC) in South Africa, focusing on the influence of objective class positions and stratification beliefs amid the country’s extreme inequality. Using data from the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) for 2009 and 2019, the study finds that objective class—measured via the Erikson-Goldthorpe-Portocarero (EGP) occupational class scheme—strongly shapes PSC, with the lower (working) class perceiving higher levels of social conflict, consistent with Marxist theory on class consciousness and conflict. Contrary to international findings, the perception of South Africa as a middle-class society ("middle-class imagery") does not significantly affect PSC, nor does it mediate the relationship between class and conflict perceptions. Additionally, tolerance for inequality negatively relates to PSC only in 2009, suggesting a diminishing role over time. The study highlights persistent racial and gender disparities in conflict perceptions, reflecting the enduring impact of apartheid-era inequalities, and underscores the importance of addressing structural class divides to mitigate social unrest.