Iran Toppled the Shah in 1979. Why This Time Isn't Quite Like That.

The article analyzes the current political and economic crisis in Iran, emphasizing that the conditions differ significantly from those that led to the 1979 revolution. It highlights how U.S. sanctions and military actions have devastated Iran's economy, benefiting elites linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) while undermining traditional power centers like the bazaar merchants, who have lost much of their independence. The Iranian clergy is fragmented with competing factions, and the military remains loyal to the regime, reducing the likelihood of a revolutionary overthrow similar to 1979. The piece underscores that meaningful change in Iran requires sustained, organized internal resistance rather than external interference or simplistic narratives about imminent collapse.