JOURNAL ARTICLE

The unfolding mystery of the numbers: First and second digits based comparative tests and its application to Ghana's elections.

  • Published In: Model Assisted Statistics & Applications, 2023, v. 18, n. 2. P. 183 1 of 3

  • Database: Applied Science & Technology Source Ultimate 2 of 3

  • Authored By: Agyemang, Edmund Fosu; Nortey, Ezekiel N.N.; Minkah, Richard; Asah-Asante, Kwame 3 of 3

Abstract

This study examines the use of digits-based tests, grounded in Benford's Law, to detect anomalies in Ghana’s 2016 and 2020 presidential election results. Analysis of first-digit distributions of valid votes for the two main political parties—the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC)—and total valid votes cast (TVVC) showed conformity with Benford’s expected patterns, suggesting possible anomaly-free elections. However, second-digit distributions deviated for NPP and TVVC in both elections, indicating potential irregularities. Spearman rank correlation tests confirmed significant alignment between observed and expected first-digit distributions but revealed inconsistencies for second digits, leading the authors to recommend using both first and second-digit tests jointly for more robust election anomaly detection.

Additional Information

  • Source:Model Assisted Statistics & Applications. 2023/04, Vol. 18, Issue 2, p183
  • Document Type:Article
  • Subject Area:Mathematics
  • Publication Date:2023
  • ISSN:15741699
  • DOI:10.3233/MAS-221418
  • Accession Number:164558147
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