Pressed to Prolong: Conscription, the Costs of Military Labor, and Civil War Duration.

This article examines how a state's military personnel system—specifically conscription versus volunteer recruitment—affects the duration of civil wars. It argues that conscription lowers the budgetary costs of war by providing abundant, low-cost military labor, which reduces incentives for states to negotiate peace and leads to longer conflicts. In contrast, volunteer militaries face higher labor costs, prompting more capital-intensive military strategies and increasing the likelihood of earlier conflict termination. Empirical analysis of global civil wars from 1945 to 2003 supports these claims, showing that conscript militaries are associated with prolonged civil wars and that this effect intensifies as conflicts endure. Case studies of Colombia and Nicaragua illustrate how conscription’s labor cost advantages and capital–labor substitution contribute to protracted internal conflicts.