When market access gains do not spur urban growth.

This article examines the asymmetric effects of the division and reunification of Germany on the population growth of West German cities near the former East–West border, focusing on local market access changes as a natural experiment. It finds that while the division caused a significant and lasting population decline in border cities, the reunification—despite restoring market access—did not lead to any relative population growth or convergence even after three decades. The study rules out several explanations, including economic disparities and persistent trade barriers, and suggests that large subsidies directed toward East Germany after reunification may have offset potential growth in West German border cities by flattening the population response gradient. These findings highlight a temporal asymmetry in economic adjustment to market access shocks and imply that positive and negative shocks may not produce symmetric effects, especially in the presence of substantial regional subsidies.