Strategy, Secrecy, and External Support for Insurgent Groups.

The article focuses on explaining variation in state strategies for supporting transnational insurgent groups, proposing a theory that links the offensive or defensive goals of sponsoring states with their fears of escalation to determine whether support is overt or covert. It identifies four strategies of state sponsorship—covert revisionism, overt revisionism, covert deterrence, and overt deterrence—based on combinations of these goals and escalation fears. Using a medium-N study of Indian support for insurgents in South Asia, supported by primary sources and fieldwork, the article finds that India's strategies generally align with this framework, providing overt support for offensively aimed groups against weaker neighbors and covert support for defensive aims where escalation risks are higher. Comparative case studies of Indian policy toward insurgents in Myanmar and Sri Lanka illustrate these dynamics, while exceptions such as India's overt support for Tibetan rebels highlight areas for further research on miscalculations and termination of support.