EU Isolation and Russian Overtures Threaten Western Balkan Peace.

The European Union's decision to decline accession talks with Bosnia-Herzegovina has created an opportunity for Russia to provoke instability in the region. Milorad Dodik, the Russia-backed leader of Bosnia's Serb population, has announced plans for a Bosnian Serb breakaway state, reminiscent of the ethnic cleansing that occurred in the region decades ago. The structure of Bosnia's government, established by the Dayton Peace Accords, allows ethnic leaders like Dodik to hold the country's EU accession process hostage. This situation, combined with delays and ambivalence from the EU, has soured many people on moving forward with EU membership. Russia and other state actors, such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey, are increasing their influence campaigns in the region. EU leaders are concerned about the increased influence of Russia and the vulnerability of the EU. Similar challenges may arise in neighboring countries, such as Montenegro and Serbia, where support for EU membership is declining. To stabilize the region, difficult decisions and a commitment to putting Bosnia on the EU path are necessary. However, this could lead to a choice between compromising on conditions and making the EU look weak or insisting on conditions and making Bosnia more unstable. The divide within Bosnia is already widening, with some feeling closer to Russia and questioning the value of EU membership. [Extracted from the article]