JOURNAL ARTICLE

Trading in Turbulent Times: Unravelling the Interplay between Trade Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitics in Russian Mineral Resource Supply.

  • Published In: Foreign Trade Review, 2025, v. 60, n. 3. P. 267 1 of 3

  • Database: Business Source Ultimate 2 of 3

  • Authored By: Islam, Md. Monirul; Sohag, Kazi 3 of 3

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of global trade policy uncertainty (TPU) and decomposed geopolitical risks (GPR)—specifically nuclear threats (NCT), terror threats, and war threats (WAT)—on Russian mineral exports (MEX) from January 2013 to December 2021. Using advanced quantile regression techniques, including the cross-quantilogram (CQ) and cross-spectral quantile coherency (CQC), the study finds that TPU positively influences Russian mineral export volumes, while terror and war threats negatively affect exports, particularly during bullish market conditions. Conversely, nuclear threats are associated with increased mineral exports during bearish market phases. These findings highlight the complex interplay between trade policy, geopolitical tensions, and mineral supply dynamics, offering insights for policymakers aiming to develop sustainable mineral trade strategies amid geopolitical challenges.

Additional Information

  • Source:Foreign Trade Review. 2025/08, Vol. 60, Issue 3, p267
  • Document Type:Article
  • Subject Area:Mining and Mineral Resources
  • Publication Date:2025
  • ISSN:0015-7325
  • DOI:10.1177/00157325241276252
  • Accession Number:186081207
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