Play it Again, Sam? Reference-Point Formation and Product Differentiation in the Music Industry.

This article develops a theoretical and empirical framework to analyze how product differentiation in new musical releases influences audience reactions, focusing on the distinct preferences of radio stations and music critics. Using data on sonic attributes and genre affiliations from Spotify and Deezer, radio play counts across 26 European countries, and aggregated critic ratings, the study identifies three key reference sets shaping audience expectations: within-artist past works, proximal peers in similar genres, and dominant market designs (chart-toppers). Findings reveal that radio stations favor consistency with an artist’s previous style and similarity to popular market leaders, showing attachment to familiar sounds, while critics prefer novelty and musical evolution relative to the artist’s own past, exhibiting satiation toward repetition. The research highlights the moderating roles of genre labeling and artist career tenure in managing audience expectations and suggests that data-driven decision support can help artists strategically balance commercial success and critical acclaim. The framework is proposed as applicable beyond music to other cultural markets characterized by dual audience structures and complex reference effects.