Cohort-Specific Experiences of Industrial Decline and Intergenerational Income Mobility.

This article examines how the decline of the United States manufacturing industry has affected intergenerational income mobility for birth cohorts born in the 1980s. Using county-level data on manufacturing employment and income mobility estimates from linked tax records, the study finds that children raised in counties with higher shares of manufacturing jobs at labor market entry experienced greater upward income mobility in adulthood. Conversely, cohorts exposed to larger declines in manufacturing employment during adolescence faced reduced upward mobility, with these effects varying by race, gender, and urban-rural status. The findings highlight how structural labor market changes contribute to geographic disparities in economic opportunity and underscore the importance of local industrial composition in shaping long-term social stratification.