The 2022 Elections: A Test of Democracy's Resilience and the Referendum Theory of Midterms.

The article analyzes the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, focusing on how American democracy withstood the electoral test better than the traditional referendum theory predicted. Despite President Joe Biden's low approval ratings and high inflation, Democrats lost far fewer House seats than models based on economic and presidential approval fundamentals forecasted. Key factors altering the expected referendum outcome included former President Donald Trump's promotion of election denial ("the big lie") influencing Republican primaries, and the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, which mobilized Democratic and independent voters around threats to democracy and abortion rights. The electorate exhibited unprecedented partisan loyalty and continuity with the 2020 presidential vote, limiting cross-party defections and reinforcing deep political polarization. While Trump's endorsements and election denial claims generally hurt Republican candidates in competitive races, Democrats' strong campaign financing and issue framing helped them retain control of the Senate and mitigate losses in the House, underscoring the complex interplay of national issues and entrenched partisan identities in shaping the 2022 electoral outcomes.