Reflections on the U.S. Presidential Election of 2024.

This article reflects on the 2024 US presidential election and the author’s series of 22 columns chronicling the campaign for the Tocqueville 21 website. It critiques the common "horse race" focus of election coverage that underestimated the radical nature of Donald Trump’s second term, which has been marked by unprecedented control over the Republican Party, a compliant judiciary, and aggressive executive actions guided by the Heritage Foundation’s "Project 2025." The article also examines structural economic and social factors behind Trump’s rise but emphasizes two contingent factors that critically influenced the election outcome: President Joe Biden’s refusal to withdraw despite evident physical and cognitive decline, and delays in Trump’s multiple criminal trials that prevented potentially damaging verdicts before the vote. These contingencies, the article argues, helped enable Trump’s narrow victory and the ensuing political upheaval in the United States.