Nationalism and Conflict: How Do Variations of Nationalism Affect Variations in Domestic and International Conflict?

This article presents a novel theoretical framework explaining the emergence and variation of international and domestic conflicts through five distinct types of nationalism—satisfied, stateless, consolidating, irredentist, and populist—shaped by two key factors: state capacity (stateness) and national congruence (the alignment between national identities and state borders). High state capacity combined with high national congruence tends to produce peaceful, stable states with satisfied nationalism, while low capacity and incongruence lead to failed states and civil wars driven by stateless nationalism. Strong states with external national incongruence often exhibit irredentist nationalism, fueling interstate conflicts and great-power competition, as seen in China and Russia, whereas high-capacity states facing declining congruence experience nationalist populism, resulting in domestic polarization and challenges to liberal democracy, exemplified by recent developments in the United States and Europe. The theory integrates these dynamics to explain contemporary global challenges to the liberal international order, including failed states, rising populism, and interstate rivalries, emphasizing the importance of the state-to-nation balance in understanding conflict and peace.