Expectations for Policy Change and Participation.

This article examines how Americans’ expectations about policy changes resulting from the 2020 presidential election influence their decision to vote. Using survey data from both the general public and expert political scientists, it finds that the public generally overestimates the likelihood of legislative policy changes due to underappreciation of institutional constraints like the separation of powers, while experts provide more tempered forecasts. Importantly, higher expectations for policy differences between candidates strongly predict validated voter turnout, exceeding traditional predictors such as education and political interest. The study highlights the role of anticipated policy benefits in motivating electoral participation and suggests that inflated expectations may have broader implications for political engagement and democratic stability.