Gone with the wind: The consequences of US drone strikes in Pakistan.

This article investigates the causal effects of 420 U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan from 2006 to 2016, using daily wind conditions as an instrumental variable to address endogeneity concerns. The study finds that drone strikes significantly increase subsequent terrorist attacks—accounting for up to 19% of all attacks and over 3,000 terror deaths in Pakistan during that period—contrasting with prior correlational analyses that showed no effect. Additionally, drone strikes provoke a polarized response in Pakistani media, increasing both negative emotions and anger toward the United States as well as some positive emotions in drone-related news coverage. The research also documents a rise in anti-U.S. protests and online searches for radical Islamist concepts following drone strikes, suggesting growing anti-U.S. sentiment and potential radicalization among the Pakistani population. These findings highlight complex and unintended consequences of drone warfare on terrorism and public attitudes in Pakistan.