Turnout Decline, Mobilization, and Third-Party Surge: The 2020 Puerto Rico General Election.

The article analyzes the 2020 Puerto Rico General Election, focusing on the decline in voter turnout, the surge of third-party candidates, and the weakening dominance of the two main parties—the Partido Nuevo Progresista (New Progressive Party, PNP) and the Partido Popular Democrático (Popular Democratic Party, PPD). Using aggregate municipal-level data from the US Census and the Puerto Rico State Electoral Commission, the authors find that an enthusiasm gap existed: supporters of third parties (Partido Independentista Puertorriqueño, Puerto Rican Independence Party, PIP; Movimiento Victoria Ciudadana, Citizen's Victory Movement, MVC; and Proyecto Dignidad, Dignity Project, PD) were more motivated to vote than those of the PNP and PPD. Party mobilization efforts and self-mobilization driven by a concurrent status plebiscite on statehood were key factors influencing turnout and, consequently, the gubernatorial vote distribution. The study also highlights the limited but notable influence of demographic variables, municipal-level corruption reports, and religious factors on voting patterns, while emphasizing that turnout variations largely explained the electoral success of third-party candidates in municipalities with lower participation.