The Consequences of Direct Democracy for the Balance of Power between State and Local Governments in the United States.

This article examines the impact of direct democracy—specifically ballot measures—on the balance of power between state and local governments in the United States. Analyzing 945 ballot measures from 26 states over 120 years, the study finds that citizen-initiated ballot measures neither centralize nor decentralize power, while legislature-referred measures tend to decentralize power toward local governments. Contrary to expectations, voters generally show greater support for centralizing ballot measures, with this support influenced by state-level partisanship and ideology: socially liberal states favor centralization, whereas Republican-controlled states show more support for decentralization. These findings contrast with prior research on state statutes, executive orders, and judicial decisions, suggesting that ballot measures do not broadly counteract the trend of state-level centralization in American federalism.