Keeping Your Mouth Shut: Spiraling Self-Censorship in the United States.

This article examines the significant increase in self-censorship among Americans from the McCarthy era to 2020, finding that over 40 percent of people now withhold their views due to social pressures rather than formal restrictions. The analysis identifies affective political polarization—intense dislike and distrust between ideological groups—as strongly correlated with higher self-censorship, while opposition to civil liberties and local political intolerance show little relationship. Perceptions of government repression contribute modestly to self-censorship, but the primary driver appears to be fear of social isolation from friends, family, and neighbors, consistent with Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann's "Spiral of Silence" theory. Conservatives report more self-censorship than liberals, and demographic factors such as education, gender, and partisanship have minimal impact. The findings highlight concerns about the health of democratic discourse when many citizens refrain from expressing dissenting opinions.