Net Zero Emissions in Saudi Arabia by 2060: Least-Cost Pathways, Influence of International Oil Price, and Economic Consequences.

This article analyzes Saudi Arabia’s goal to achieve net zero emissions (NZE) by 2060 through a hybrid forward-looking general equilibrium model that explicitly represents energy technologies and administered energy prices. It examines least-cost NZE pathways under varying international oil price scenarios and carbon capture availability, finding that domestic price reforms alone can reduce emissions by 13–27% by 2060, while full NZE requires large-scale deployment of renewables, clean hydrogen, and especially carbon capture technologies, including direct air capture (DAC). The study highlights that lower international oil prices increase the carbon price needed for NZE and may cause energy system costs to exceed oil export revenues, with hydrogen exports offering limited offset unless hydrogen prices are substantially higher than current projections. Macroeconomic impacts include a potential 3–10% reduction in GDP by 2060 depending on oil prices and carbon capture availability, driven by increased energy expenditures, investment crowding out, and Dutch disease effects, underscoring the importance of coordinated carbon pricing, technology development, and economic diversification in Saudi Arabia’s energy transition.