A recession indicator that predicted every downturn since 1969 started flashing months ago—and a Wall Street veteran warns it always works on a delay.

The article focuses on the significance of the yield curve as a recession indicator and its implications for the U.S. economy. It explains that a yield curve inversion, where long-term bond yields fall below short-term yields, has historically preceded every U.S. recession since 1969, with the current inversion lasting since July 2022. Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, warns that the economy could enter a recession as early as October 2023, citing additional economic signals such as the decline in the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) and the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate hikes. The article concludes with Horneman's prediction of a potential 10% to 15% decline in stock markets as investors adjust to the economic realities. [Extracted from the article]