The Reverse Backlash: How the Success of Populist Radical Right Parties Relates to More Positive Immigration Attitudes.

This article examines the relationship between the electoral success of populist radical right parties (PRRPs) and public attitudes toward immigration across twenty-four European countries from 1989 to 2017. Contrary to the expectation that PRRP success would increase anti-immigration sentiment by legitimizing such views, the study finds evidence of a "reverse backlash effect," where greater PRRP electoral success is associated with more positive public attitudes toward immigration. This effect is interpreted as a reaction by the majority of citizens to reaffirm antiprejudice social norms and express negative partisanship toward PRRPs, as well as a reduction in ambivalence due to increased issue salience and polarization. The findings are based on time-series cross-sectional fixed-effects analyses using comprehensive electoral and public opinion data, though the authors note limitations regarding causality and suggest further research with individual-level data. Overall, the study challenges assumptions about the impact of populist radical right parties on immigration attitudes and highlights the resilience of social norms opposing xenophobia.