The industrial bottleneck of Sino-Russian oil and gas ties: a path dependence perspective.

This article critically examines the commonly held view that Sino-Russian oil and gas ties have deepened significantly amid Western sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, arguing instead that cooperation remains limited and largely trade-oriented. It highlights the industrial chain disengagement between the two countries, noting that China has minimal access to Russian upstream oil and gas assets, Russia has little presence in China’s downstream sector, and no jointly owned or managed midstream infrastructure exists. This fragmented industrial relationship lacks the lock-in effects, common institutions, and domestic support necessary for stable, long-term energy integration, contrasting with both countries’ more integrated energy partnerships with other nations. The article concludes that despite increased trade volumes, the Sino-Russian oil and gas partnership remains vulnerable and insufficiently institutionalized to withstand external geopolitical and economic pressures.