Challenges to correcting pluralistic ignorance: false consensus effects, competing information environments, and anticipated social conflict.

This article examines pluralistic ignorance and its impact on Republican voters' public expression of views regarding childhood vaccines. While a majority of Republicans support vaccines, many underestimate their in-group's support, a misperception primarily found among anti-vaccine Republicans who also show greater willingness to share their views, contributing to an information environment overrepresented by minority opinions. The study finds that pro-vaccine Republicans generally have accurate perceptions of group opinion but may refrain from speaking out due to anticipated social conflict in a minority-dominated information environment, rather than misperceived opinion climates. These findings suggest that interventions addressing pluralistic ignorance should consider the role of social identity and information environment dynamics, focusing on reducing anticipated social conflict to encourage majority view holders' participation. The research is based on a nationally representative survey of 1,000 registered Republican voters conducted in December 2022.